ON MARCH 16TH members of a legendary Peruvian cumbia band, Armonía 10, were heading from one packed concert venue to the next in Lima, Peru’s capital, when men on motorcycles attacked their bus. Bullets flew through the windshield, killing the band’s lead singer, Paul Flores. Waiting fans gasped in horror at the news. Police suspect the attack was related to an extortion attempt by a local gang.
Peruvians have watched their country descend to new depths of lawlessness in the past year. Street gangs run rampant in Lima and other cities along the Pacific coast. They extract “protection” fees from virtually anyone with a public-facing business, from cumbia bands to transport firms—and kill those who do not pay. At the same time, drug trafficking is rising in the Peruvian Amazon region and gangs are taking control of mines in the Andes.
Amid the outcry after Mr Flores’ killing, President Dina Boluarte declared a 30-day state of emergency in Lima. On March 25th she called a general election for one year hence, in an effort, she said, to end Peru’s instability.
Law and order have never been Peru’s forte. It has a stubbornly large informal economy. The police are riddled with corruption. Many livelihoods depend on cocaine and illicit gold. The crime wave washing over the country is a reminder that things can still get worse. In 2024 contract killings made up half of all homicides, which have doubled in five years. Reports of extortion have surged more than eight-fold, even though many victims choose not to refer threats to the police; those who do often discover that their extortionists find out within hours. “The gangs have better intelligence than the police,” says Katherine Gómez, who runs a market where most vendors suffer extortion.
Increased criminality is curbing legitimate business. “We’ve never seen this level of penetration of illegal mining before,” says Pablo de la Flor, who works for Peru’s largest gold mine, La Poderosa. Armed groups fighting for control of the mine have killed 18 of the company’s workers in the past three years. They have also destroyed 17 high-voltage transmission towers on which the firm relies for power.
Peru is not the only Latin American country to have recently tipped towards chaos. In Ecuador, just to Peru’s north, new drug-trafficking routes have paved the way to record crime rates. But no single factor explains Peru’s recent surge of crime. Pandemic-era disruptions pushed robbers into predatory lending and extortion. Peru’s backlogged justice system and overcrowded prisons have not helped. Nor has the proliferation of weapons trafficking.
Perhaps the most striking aspect of Peru’s insecurity crisis is the way that its elected officials have responded. Far from getting tough on crime, legislators have instead passed laws that throw up hurdles for prosecutors. It is no secret that these measures aim to shield politicians and their allies from corruption probes that can be aggressive. Lawmakers have publicly admitted as much. But the measures also help criminals evade justice. Will Freeman of the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations calls the so-called counter-reforms “one of the most systematic, ruthless attempts to weaken institutions anywhere in the region recently”.
Will Peru be the next Ecuador? Its homicide rate is still well below its northern neighbour’s. But if law and order do continue to deteriorate, the fallout could be bigger. Peru’s population and GDP are much larger. Emigration is already rising. Experts say it is not too late to control the crime wave, but it would require a political will that has so far been lacking. Despite recent problems, Peru’s justice system is still much stronger than Ecuador’s pre-meltdown, says Mr Freeman.
Many Peruvians long for an “iron-fisted” leader like El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele. In parts of Lima, “THE PERUVIAN BUKELE” is painted in large red letters on walls along main roads, pleading for a strongman. More than 40 political parties have registered for next year’s general election. The one that sounds most like Mr Bukele may well win.
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